知名Fundstrat.創辦人Tom Lee 給投資人的美國市場情勢建議

        上星期五的非農就業報告似乎讓美國民眾陷入憂鬱之中；而 Tom 並不過分 擔憂，儘管這是導致投資人擔心此刻經濟低迷的步調是否會延續至第二季的原因。

        從政府在上星期五出示的這份非農就業報告中，可知美國在三月份共釋出十 二萬六千個工作機會，遠低於分析機構認知的二十四萬五千的職位，且比起 2013 年底的任何的預期報告的結果更為糟糕；Tom 也發現目前美國的 GDP 成長率曲 線已低於美國聯準會預期的至少兩個百分點。

        Tom 認為，如果一旦第二季的經濟表現與第一季的慘澹相同，這時我們 再擔心也不遲，但這多半是由於短暫的因素所導致。美元目前正在扭轉回升，第 一季的表現只是經濟正緩慢拖拉向前的狀態，但並不預期在剩餘的一年內還會有 這樣的情況。 

出處:美國勞動部勞工統計局 2015/04/03 統計報告

 http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

出處:：BEA 美國經濟分析局 2015/03/27 統計報告 http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdp_glance.htm

        投資人真正應該謹記在心的，是注意市場上是否存在逆勢而上的需求以及經 濟是否有成長的空間。即便第一季的資本支出並不高，但 Tom 認為，以目前第 一季的資本支出水準來看，預期生產者正計畫運用產能是有跡可循的。  

出處：紐約聯邦儲備銀行 統計報表 https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CSCINA156MNFRBNY

        對於被問到聯準會是否會等待到六月的中央公開市場委員會議招開時開始 調升利率的問題時，Tom 並不認為會有此現象，並說明市場會在九月份看到更 好的成長表現，且一旦伴隨著歐洲日本的央行積極買入債券以刺激個別國內的經 濟。向上的趨勢極可能會更為明顯。 投資人不該因向上調整的利率感到驚慌，相反這意味中央銀行對於美國經濟 的表現是樂觀且具有信心的，不需要零利率政策來刺激景氣。Tom 認為，以目 前來看，毫無疑問我們應該對於未來的經濟表現抱持好的預期。 

資料來源: CNBC http://www.cnbc.com/id/102562096

以下檢附原文內容： 

This is when to worry about the US market: Tom Lee

Known for his bullish outlook on the U.S. stock market, Fundstrat Global Advisors founder Tom Lee is not overly worried about Friday's disappointing jobs report. He said, however, that it would be cause for concern if the sluggish pace of economic growth in the first quarter continues in the second.

Government data showed Friday that the United States added just 126,000 jobs in March, well below consensus estimates for 245,000 new positions and the weakest report since December 2013. Lee noted that U.S. gross domestic product growth is currently tracking below the Federal Reserve's expectation of at least 2 percent. 

"I think if Q2 is tracking at the same level we'd have to worry, but I think that a lot of these are temporary factors," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box." "The dollar is reversing, construction was a drag in the first quarter, government was a drag. We don't expect to see these the rest of the year." 

The question investors need to keep in mind, Lee said, is whether there is pent-up demand in the United States and whether the economy is capable of generating organic growth.While capital spending was also weak in the first quarter, Lee expects U.S. producers to utilize more of their capacity, which is often a precursor to such expenditures.

Asked whether the Fed would now wait until after its June Federal Open Market Committee meeting to begin raising interest rates, Lee said Fundstrat never saw justification for increasing rates in June. The market would be in a better position to absorb a hike in September, when such a move would likely coincide with better growth figures coming out of Europe and Japan, where central bankers are buying bonds to stimulate their respective economies, he said.

The Fed needs to be mindful of the market and meet expectations, Lee said, but investors will not be too spooked by a hike because it signals the central bank is confident the U.S. economy is healthy and no longer needs a zero interest rate environment. 

"Is it going to be seen as a positive investment signal? I would say without a question ultimately it's going to be seen as positive," he said.